Fantasy NHL Players Worth Dropping
NHL Players Sure to Fizzle Out After Hot Starts
In the early stages of any sports season, fantasy owners often wrestle with the temptation to drop proven, time-tested players off to slow starts in favor of a hot hand. Fantasy hockey owners must bear in mind that the the fantasy hockey season, like the NHL campaign, is a marathon and not a sprint. With the first month of the season in the books, it's time to separate the real deals from the pretenders. The previous article outlined the real deals. Now, it's time to scrutinize some of the NHL's hot starters who are poised to flame out.
Matt Moulson (New York Islanders) - LW
Moulson turned more than a few heads in the season's opening month. A 9th round pick of the Penguins in 2003, Moulson is a hockey journeyman, logging 29 NHL games in 4 seasons as a professional prior to this year. After a cup of tea with the Kings last year, Moulson was invited to training camp with the Islanders this year. Early on in camp, Moulson was put on a line with Kyle Okposo and future super sniper John Tavares and the trio gelled almost immediately. Their success carried over into the regular season and Moulson reaped the benefits, putting up 8 points in his first 7 games. In his previous 29 NHL games, Moulson totalled just 10 points. And now, a harsh dose of reality.
This is a facade. Moulson is almost certain to flame out. Most players who are journeyman are so for a reason and there must be a gaping hole in Moulson's game. For a guy with good size who is a point-per-game player in college to fall to the 9th round in his draft year and, to be getting his first legimitate NHL stint 6 years later, there is something missing. Plus, he has already begun his descent down to earth. After his hot start, Moulson put up just 3 points in his next nine games. Tavares, the straw that stirs the drink for the top line, has scored just twice in his last 13 games.
Advice: The Islanders are a one-line team and opponents are starting to figure them out. It was good while it lasted but the ride is over for both Moulson and his team. Get rid of him while he still has value.
Ryan O'Reilly (Colorado Avalanche) - C
The case against O'Reilly is different than Moulson's. Drafted 7 rounds ahead of Moulson (2nd round in 2009), O'Reilly has talent and projects well as a solid NHL pivot. Problem is, we've seen this movie before. Every season there is always a few rookies with no prior NHL experience who fly out of the gate. A select few maintain the clip but most fizzle off by Christmas and finish the season on a checking line or, more often than not, back in the AHL. It's rarely owing to a lack of talent but rather, an unfamiliarity with the rigors of the NHL game. Once a player makes a name for himself, as O'Reilly has, opposing teams start to stockpile video and pore over footage to learn a player's tendencies. Young, unproven kids typically struggle to adapt and this is what is likely to happen with O'Reilly. A bigger reason for his inevitable burnout is the fact that the Avalanche can't possibly stay perched atop the Northwest division. Make no mistake, the Avs are a rebuilding team - which probably explains why O'Reilly is on the team to begin with. The Avs have benefitted from the stingy play of Craig Anderson (whom they picked up of the scrap heap) and an over-achieving rookie class. By year's end, Colorado will be exactly where they should be: behind the Canucks, Flames and probably the Oilers.
Advice: O'Reilly has a bright future in the NHL but not yet. As the Avalanche eventually starts to cool off so, too will he.For those in keeper leagues, consider hanging onto him. For anyone else, drop him. It's a nice story, but there are better centers on the waiver wire.
Mike Fisher (Ottawa Senators) - C
Fisher, a second-line center who is owed 15 million dollars over the next 4 seasons, has busted out in a big way this season. In 15 games, Mr. Carrie Underwood has 6 goals and 13 points, a pace he has never maintained at the NHL level. In fact, this is as close to a point-per-game clip that Fisher's been since a 106 point campaign as an 18-year old for the OHL's Sudbury Wolves. A 29 year-old in his 9th full season in the league, there's no secret what Fisher is - and what he isn't. What he isn't is a prolific scorer. To this point, Fisher's career-high is 48 points. His highest goal total is 23, set that same season. For most of Fisher's tenure in Ottawa, the club stacked their top line, leaving him without much of a supporting cast. Still, it's become very clear that Fisher cannot be relied upon for consistent offensive production.
Fisher will cool off, it's inevitable. However, he should set a new career-high and surpass 50 points playing with the wizardry of the newly acquired (and supremely talented) Alexei Kovalev.
Advice: While 50-60 points is a decent output for a second-liner, there are much better options on the waiver wire. A guy like Jason Arnott, for example, is only owned in 44% of leagues.
Matt Moulson leads the Islanders with 14 points
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