The list of drama is long.
Defenceman Mathieu Schneider came home to the bleu, blanc et rouge as part of a trade with the Atlanta Thrashers.
Enigmatic and talented Alexei Kovalev returned from his dramatic (‘we don’t need you on this road trip’) benching in dramatic fashion, helping to earn a badly needed win against the Ottawa Senators.
Brothers Sergei and Andrie Kostitsyn, along with Roman Hamrlik, were named in connection to the arrest of an individual with alleged links to organized crime.
Meanwhile, supposed goaltending phenom, Carey Price, continues to struggle for reasons that are not clear.
It has been an eventful week, and the team picked by many, including The Hockey News, to dominant the Eastern Conference, is far from living up to expectations.
With all the rumours and conjecture in circulation, it’s no wonder that many fans are concerned about the team’s performance. After all, wasn’t this supposed to be the season to celebrate “100 Seasons”, and make a legitimate push for the Canadiens’ 25th Stanley Cup?
But instead of reveling in the rumours (just how much partying is going on?), or making excuses for the team’s troubles (maybe Price is hurt), perhaps it’s time to look at some cold, hard numbers in order to help forecast Montreal’s fortunes.
After 60 regular season games, the Canadiens have accumulated 69 points and sit fifth amongst the fifteen teams in the NHL's Eastern Conference. Not bad at first glance, the top eight teams will make the playoffs. But Montreal is only 2 points ahead of ninth place Carolina, and with only seven points separating fourth place Philadelphia from tenth place Pittsburg, the race to the end of the regular season on April 12th will be tight and competitive.
The Canadiens have 22 games remaining, and therefore could earn as many as 44 additional points before the close of the regular season. However, consider that if they only manage to play .500 hockey (something they haven’t been able to do recently), they will finish with 91 points. Since the 2004 lockout, no team has earned an Eastern Conference playoff berth with fewer than 92 points. Last year, the Boston Bruins needed 94 points for the eighth and final invitation to the post season.
So far, the Canadiens have managed a points-earned average of .575 over the course of the season. Should that be their final percentage, they will finish with 94 points, perhaps just enough to make the playoffs and satisfy their fans. But this is where the concern creeps in: since the All Star break over a month ago, the Canadiens have won only four of their 16 games.
Further, while they are a respectable 12th in the league for goals-per-game, they are a disastrous 21st overall in terms of goals-allowed-per-game. With one of their leading scorers, Robert Lang, now out for the remainder of the season, their defensive play will only become more important down the stretch run.
How any of the recent drama may affect the Canadiens' past or future performance (or any decisions as the NHL trade line approaches) is hard to know. For those outside the locker room, the whole story concerning any of the events from last week will likely never be known for certain.
But what is certain is this: the Canadiens are in real danger of missing the playoffs. The numbers prove it.
This wasn’t how the season of celebrating “100 Seasons” was supposed to play out.
